The Conflict Research Unit (CRU) at Clingendael conducts empirically grounded research on the drivers, developments and consequences of violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. Adopting a political economy analysis approach, our research exposes and explains how violent conflicts develop in response to structural power, be it economic, political or embedded in governance arrangements.

Making an impact

In 2022, the Conflict Research Unit gained traction among a growing number of stakeholders with influential development and stabilisation portfolios in conflict-affected countries. Regular policy input and context briefings to, for example, the World Bank, NATO, USAID, Dutch embassies and development banks contributed to these actors’ context awareness during volatile periods.

“The question here is really whether Russia is creating these coups or whether it is just blowing on the fire. I think it’s the latter.”

– Constantin Gouvy analyses the coups in Burkina Faso on Al Jazeera (October 2022)

We have strengthened our position as a trusted partner by offering proper analyses on various topical issues. Our team’s presence in Burkina Faso during the September coup d’état enabled CRU to provide real-time analysis to foreign policy partners in the region, as well as the public.

Furthermore, our new conflict management strategy for Syria was positively received by the UN Special Envoy’s team. Our experts’ longer-term analysis of geopolitical trends, for example in the Middle East, have also enjoyed good uptake among partners at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“There’s a belief that strongmen can better face the security risks, especially in the Sahelian countries where violence is spiraling (…). But a military takeover doesn’t necessarily lead to a more effective response against insurgencies — continuing attacks in Mali are evidence of that, she said. Ultimately, said Ms. Schmauder, Military powers are kind of there to stay, and doing everything to cement their own power.”t important points of contention. Meanwhile, the violence committed against protestors continues.”

– Anna Schmauder in The New York Times (31 January 2022)

Highlights

In 2022, we were able to attract several renowned regional experts to join as staff or associates, as well as several promising researchers with the skill sets and country experience to expand the unit’s standing capacity. The new influx of competencies allowed CRU to develop new lines of work incorporating more quantitative approaches, for example on Early Warning systems.

Long-term country presence ensured that our researchers were able to offer nuanced and insightful reflections on current (geopolitical) developments, such as Sudan’s transition, as well as Russia’s activities across Africa. Our accurate forecast of trends and events after the Israeli elections in November 2022 and our analysis of the evolution of the Iran-linked axis of resistance marked the strength and relevance of CRU’s work on the Middle East.

We have improved the accessibility of our complex analyses by incorporating visual aids, including explainer videos, graphic schemes and illustrative overviews. This way, for instance, we were able to present a compelling distillation of four years of research on the role of armed groups in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars.

Clingendael expert Nancy Ezzeddine made an explainer video about the interests and goals of the Hashd al-Shaabi.

Looking ahead

We are excited to both broaden and deepen our thematic scope in 2023. Our work on inclusive hybrid governance will be enhanced by investigating elite network competition within the central state. Deeper analysis of organised criminal networks has also been proposed to supplement our research on migration in the Greater Sahel. CRU’s geographical scope is furthermore expanding, with increased work on the coastal areas of West Africa and new case studies on the possibilities for political renewal under authoritarian conditions, including social contract issues.

In 2022, the activities of Clingendael’s Security Unit were significantly affected by the war in Ukraine, particularly in terms of media coverage and research (see the Clingendael Russia and Eastern Europe Centre’s section for further detail). Our researchers’ knowledge and insights on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were highly sought after in the Netherlands and abroad, reflecting the pressing need to understand and respond to this ongoing crisis. Nonetheless, despite the war’s impact on the researchers’ agendas, our team managed to complete most of the already planned projects and even initiated new ones.

Clingendael experts Adája Stoetman and Dick Zandee briefed the Dutch Parliament’s Defence Committee on the issue of defence specialisation.

Making an impact

Our report ‘Specialising in European defence’ triggered a request from the Dutch Parliament’s Defence Committee to the Minister of Defence, Kajsa Ollongren, for the government’s perspective on the matter. The two authors of the Clingendael report were invited to provide a briefing to the Committee. In response, Minister Ollongren sent a note to the Dutch parliament in December, acknowledging that “at large, the ten recommendations of Clingendael can be found in the policy of the defence ministry”.

The Security Unit also contributed to the Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse (nationwide risk analysis), which was commissioned by the Dutch analyst network on national security at the request of the NCTV. The comprehensive risk analysis identified several risks related to international and military threats and their potential impact on Dutch security interests. The analysis served as crucial input for a new government-wide National Security Strategy, released in April 2023.

In 2022, we partnered with Clingendael’s Conflict Research Unit to complete two projects on transnational organised crime in the Levant and Western Africa. We also created custom foresight methods to analyse trends in this area. This research project was commissioned by the Strategic Knowledge Centre for Subversive Criminality (SKC), a new government research centre. SKC has drawn extensively upon Clingendael’s research when advising the Ministry of Justice and Security.

“The unfolding of events concerning Ukraine once again highlights the fact that Europe is simply not there when it matters. (…) No one in Europe still disputes the necessity of strategic autonomy, but the question is: how do we get there?”

– Dick Zandee on the issue of European strategic autonomy in De Volkskrant (12 January 2022)

Dutch Minister of Defence Kajsa Ollongren delivered a keynote speech during an international conference on the implementation of the EU Strategic Compass, organised by Clingendael and the Egmont Institute.

Highlights

Clingendael and the Belgian Egmont Institute organised an international conference in Brussels to discuss the implementation of the EU Strategic Compass. The Belgian and Dutch ministers of Defence delivered keynote speeches and two expert panels addressed the follow-up work on the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity and the EU’s resilience capacities. We pub­lished policy briefs on both the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity and EU Hybrid Toolbox later in 2022.

Clingendael’s survey research on Russia and Ukraine and on threats and opportunities in the international domain drew significant attention from the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence, resulting in invitations to several meetings and consultation sessions to discuss the research findings and public opinion on Russia and Ukraine in the near future.

Looking ahead

Research on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on European security and defence will continue to take a prominent place in 2023. This research will be conducted in the context of the Pol-Mil Think Group as well as in specific projects – one of them focusing on the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. The Strategic Monitor will be published in 2023 as well, based on a newly agreed and more thorough methodology, incorporating surveys. We will also further develop our research on transnational organised crime by analysing several more countries and regions and creating new methodological tools in collaboration with the SKC. In addition, we will complete two reports on diaspora politics for which the work has already commenced in 2022.

Clingendael’s European Union & Global Affairs (EUGA) team witnessed significant growth in 2022 because of the geopolitical turbulence and the ability to attract new projects. Our experts not only continued their traditional work on EU policy and politics, but also intensified their efforts towards conducting cutting-edge analysis on the Western Balkans’ enlargement process and the EU’s relations with new candidate countries Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia, as well as with Turkey.

Making an impact

Clingendael proactively set and shaped the European agenda on key topics such as open strategic autonomy, digital connectivity, competition over technology, EU green energy diplomacy, trade relations, and EU enlargement. Our research had a significant impact on shaping Dutch and EU policies in these fields.

Clingendael expert Maaike Okano-Heijmans participated in the roundtable discussion on India of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Dutch House of Representatives.

In addition to our research on – the EU’s relationship with – superpowers China and Russia, we added India to this list in 2022, conducting solid research, delivering presentations, and actively participating in EU-India dialogues. We contributed with a position paper and presentation to the roundtable discussion on India of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Dutch House of Representatives.

Throughout 2022, our researchers participated in various international conferences, providing their expertise to advise on topics such as EU enlargement (on the occassion of the Czech Presidency of the EU), and engaged in track 1.5 dialogues, including on tech cooperation between the EU, US and China. Our experts also frequently appeared in national and international media.

Tweet by Anna Lührmann on 24 May 2022.

Highlights

After two virtual editions, we hosted our annual State of the Union Conference at Huys Clingendael again, together with the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defence. Over twenty experts reflected on the war in Europa and its aftershocks, discussing the impact on the EU and its neighbourhood, NATO and the future of the United States’ engagement in European security through inspiring keynote speeches and (panel) sessions. Among the high-level speakers were Gerald Knaus (European Stability Initiative), Marc Thys (Belgian Defence) and Alyona Getmanchuk (New Europe Center in Kyiv). Clingendael’s General Director Monika Sie Dhian Ho introduced former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer as the new Chair of Clingendael’s Supervisory Board.

In 2022, Clingendael organised the three-day online Asia-Europe Sustainable Connectivity Scientific Conference (AESCON), in cooperation with the European External Action Service and international partners. High-level speakers, including European Commissioner Thierry Breton, policy analysts, government representatives, the private sector and other stakeholders discussed the key policy priorities of digital connectivity between the EU and Asia. In this policy brief series we present the main findings and recommendations.

“But none of these are long-term solutions. We simply need to reduce our gas consumption. The alternatives are already available, and during the COVID-19 crisis, we showed we were also able to suddenly produce vaccines very quickly. If we do the same now with heat pumps, we will come a long way.”

– Louise van Schaik comments on the EU’s high energy price measures at NU.nl (8 September 2022)

We hosted an event with the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB), Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG) and d|part on Dutch perspectives regarding EU enlargement with the Western Balkans. New survey results on Dutch public attitudes towards enlargement were presented, which showed modestly increased support among the Dutch population due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Clingendael hosted an event on Dutch perspectives regarding EU enlargement with the Western Balkans.

“Despite being on opposing sides in several conflicts, such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Libya and Syria, [Turkey and Russia] manage to cooperate when it suits their interests. (…) Both employ a divide-and-rule tactic against the West and aspire to be regional powers. They prefer to talk to each other because they know they will eventually come to an agreement, unlike discussions with Western countries, where respect for human rights and the rule of law are always on the agenda.”

– Nienke van Heukelingen in Het Financieele Dagblad (14 March 2022)

Looking ahead

In 2023, we plan to conduct new studies on the EU’s budget and strategic autonomy, as well as launch our new programme on the Geopolitics of Technology and Digitalisation. We will continue our research on EU foreign policy, focusing on relevant regions such as Turkey, the Balkans and Eastern Europe, as well as hot topics like the global gateway, strategic autonomy and the management of unwarranted dependencies of fossil energy and critical raw materials. Regarding EU-ASEAN relations we will focus on climate adaptation as an element of the European Green Deal, culminating in a conference in Cambodia in November.

The EUGA team aims to continue analysing the implications for the EU of the changing geopolitical environment and possible enlargement. We plan to organise more events in Brussels and participate in international fora like the GLOBSEC Forum. Furthermore, we will continue studies on Ukrainian refugees in Europe and the Netherlands. In follow-up research we will analyse how the European Union can better manage relationships with other third countries that are sources of migration to Europe.

In 2022, the Clingendael China Centre strengthened its position as a national and international knowledge hub on China. Policymakers, business leaders and societal actors increasingly sought the centre’s expertise.

Making an impact

Various policy briefs and reports prompted parliamentary questions and policy actions. For instance, our report on China’s influence on the Dutch future maritime logistics hub function was mentioned in the update of the Dutch ‘China Notitie’ as an example of how research contributes to knowledge building on China among Dutch governmental organisations.

Clingendael expert Ingrid d’Hooghe participated in a roundtable discussion on China of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Dutch House of Representatives.

We also contributed with a position paper and presentation to a roundtable discussion on China of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Dutch House of Representatives. Furthermore, one of our experts delivered a keynote for the Strategic Communication Division of the European Union External Action Service (EEAS).

Clingendael’s China Centre also consolidated its role in the secretariat of the Dutch China Knowledge Network (CKN), which was launched in 2021. Through this network, the Clingendael China Centre plays a major role in supporting and facilitating knowledge exchange between China experts and Dutch officials and Dutch society.

“There is a clash in how the protests are perceived. In the West, we see a people suffering from repression, protesting and calling for freedom. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, thinks: By exerting more control, repression and order, we can save China.”

– Ties Dams on China’s zero-COVID protests in Buitenhof (4 December 2022)

Highlights

In 2022, our centre has increased its visibility both geographically and sectorally. Experts of the Clingendael China Centre spoke at various – government, track 1.5, business and public – roundtables in the Netherlands as well as across Europe. Our experts also provided their insights to multiple major Dutch and international media outlets, including Buitenhof, Nieuwsuur and NRC, as well as The Diplomat, BBC, South China Morning Post and CNN.

One of this year’s highlights was our public event held as part of the Clingendael Reads series, with award-winning Canadian China correspondent Joanna Chiu and Dutch China correspondent Sjoerd den Daas. They discussed China’s significance to the world and the world’s reaction to it, as well as China’s perception of its position in the world and its impact on reporting from within and on China.

The Clingendael China Centre organised an edition of the Clingendael Reads series with author Joanna Chiu and journalist Sjoerd den Daas, moderated by Clingendael experts Xiaoxue Martin and Frans-Paul van der Putten.

Clingendael’s China Centre also continued its participation in the European Think tank Network on China (ETNC), resulting in a paper on Dutch dependence on China. Lastly, we strengthened our weekly newsletter ‘Silk Road Headlines’, the world’s longest running English-language newsletter on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

“As the global geopolitical context is changing and there is a growing antagonism between China and the West, our assessment of what it means that China is investing in Europe is changing,’ von der Putten said. Citing a new study that Clingendael conducted with Erasmus University of Rotterdam, he claimed that although uncertainty about China prevails, it is necessary to take precautions now, considering a diverse set of scenarios.”

– Frans-Paul van der Putten on Chinese investments in European port infrastructure in Politico (21 November 2022)

Looking ahead

In 2023, Clingendael’s China Centre aims to strengthen its role as agenda setter in discussions and research on China and to expand its collaboration with European partners and EU institutions. One way in which the team invests in European connections is through its membership of the EU Horizon ‘ReConnect China’ consortium, where the Clingendael China Centre is tasked with building and leading a Europe-wide Knowledge Forum on China.

The year 2022 was marked by a seismic shift in geopolitics, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves throughout Europe and the wider world. Against this backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, our experts worked tirelessly to provide insights and analysis on the rapidly evolving situation and the implications for both the Netherlands and the broader European region. Our researchers’ deep knowledge of the region and its complexities made them a much sought-after source of expertise for policymakers as well as national and international media.

Making an impact

In 2022, Clingendael’s Russia and Eastern Europe Centre (CREEC) made a significant impact through its forecasting work for the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security. Our regular trend analyses and scenario work on the war in Ukraine and the situation of displaced Ukrainians in Europe allowed the Ministry to make a substantiated assessment of the scope of its protection mission for displaced Ukrainians in the Netherlands. These insights have also been instrumental in guiding policymakers at the local, national, and European levels, in cooperation with other national crisis management organisations of the EU.

Tweet by the Financial Times on 2 September 2022.

CREEC has also provided other policymakers with analyses and insights trough (open and closed) briefings and meetings, and engaged with a wide range of clients both within and beyond the Dutch government. We were also able to help the Dutch (and a broader international) public in navigating the latest developments through numerous media appearances, which we compiled on our expert insights page.

Clingendael expert Bob Deen explained the situation regarding the war in Ukraine to Dutch children on NOS Jeugdjournaal on 27 October 2022.

Highlights

As part of the multi-annual PROGRESS research programme, CREEC carried-out two significant research projects in 2022, examining the effects of the war on Moldova and the South Caucasus. Our experts conducted field research in Chisinau, Tiraspol, Yerevan, Tbilisi, and Baku, enhancing their understanding of the regional dynamics. This enabled them to provide recommendations on how the Netherlands and the EU could respond.

The annual REKA Conference about a new reality in Eastern Europe was a significant event in 2022 as well. Together with over 75 experts from Dutch knowledge institutes, government representatives and journalists, we discussed the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Through this event and other initiatives of the REKA network, we have continued to bring together and amplify the collective knowledge about our research area and provide a platform for discussion. Additionally, as the REKA secretariat, we also organised five expert sessions for the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, aimed at gathering input for the Netherlands’ new Russia strategy.

Opening of the annual REKA Conference 2022 by the Deputy Political Director at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Erica Schouten, and the head of the REKA secretariat, Clingendael expert Bob Deen.

Clingendael welcomed First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Emine Dzhaparova as keynote speaker during a public event about Ukraine.

We were also proud to have welcomed various high-profile guests at Clingendael, including the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Emine Dzhaparova. Through organising such public events and roundtable discussions with international guests such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Shalva Papuashvili and Kersti Kaljulaid, we had the opportunity to exchange insights and deepen mutual understanding.

“Initially, history enthusiast Putin saw Russian history as an inspiration, but later that changed, and he began using it as a weapon.”

– Niels Drost discussed his analysis of 500 speeches of Putin in Algemeen Dagblad (8 March 2022)

Looking ahead

Throughout 2022, CREEC has evolved from a newly established research centre to a widely recognised and respected name within the Dutch expert community. In the year ahead, we remain steadfast in our commitment to informing the Dutch public and policymakers about significant developments in Russia and Eastern Europe.

We particularly intend to strengthen the Dutch knowledge base on Ukraine by developing a dedicated Ukraine programme. Our focus will be on various aspects, including reforms related to Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership, reconstruction, political economy, and the military and security aspects of the war.

Through the Planetary Security Initiative (PSI), Clingendael sets out best practices, strategic entry points and new approaches to reducing climate-related risks to conflict and stability, helping to promote sustainable peace amidst a rapidly changing climate. In 2022, intensified its local work on the south of Iraq and Bay of Bengal regions in 2022. We brought local stakeholders together in Basra (Iraq) and Chiang Mai (Thailand) to discuss how climate-security affects their region.

Making an impact

At the second climate-security dialogue in Basra in May 2022, we officially launched the Basra Forum for Climate, Environment and Security. During this meeting, it became clear that the focus has shifted from recognising climate as security risk factor to the need to urgently address it. In Iraq, local government representatives, NGOs and endowment funds initiated efforts to combat desertification, halt salt water intrusion and explore renewable energy as more permanent provider of electricity. Our partner in India, the Delhi-based think tank IPCS, published a report on the Indian foreign and security community’s view on climate-security and how to tackle this issue.

Our experts led the research on the volume ‘Decarbonised Defence’ of the World Climate Security Report and contributed to studies on water in Iraq as well as on how climate change impacts the military capabilities of China, Russia and the United States.

We also focused on the European Green deal, its external dimension and the issue of a fair energy transition to all (FETA). Clingendael took part in the FETA project that was implemented in nine EU member states. Concerns about energy poverty and energy distribution have become pressing issues; the high energy prices and repercussions of the war in Ukraine have only further heightened this urgency. We discussed this matter in early 2022 with stakeholders from the government, private sector and civil society and presented relevant policy recommendations that highlight the importance of addressing the issues of unrest, populism and the need for sound EU policies on climate and energy.

“Local politicians use the flow of immigrants to justify their poor governance.”

– Maha Yassin in The Washington Post (7 September 2022)

Highlights

At our event ‘How climate change undermines security in Iraq, Africa & India’, Dutch ambassadors from Iraq, India and Kenya, along with local experts from these regions, gathered at Huys Clingendael to discuss climate-related security risks and opportunities. Both local solutions and the role of international partners, particularly the Netherlands, were explored in terms of reducing climate-related security risks.

Louise van Schaik (Clingendael), Arrliya Sugal (Berghof Foundation) and Maarten Brouwer (Netherlands Ambassador to Kenya, Somalia and Eritrea) at the event ‘How climate change undermines security in Iraq, Africa & India’ on 20 June 2022.

In collaboration with the think tank IPCS, we convened a track 1.5 dialogue with representatives from the Bay of Bengal region in Chiang Mai, India in December 2022. Additionally, PSI experts spoke at various international conferences and hosted a session on the climate-security dialogue facilitation work in the south of Iraq during the Berlin Climate Security Conference in October 2022.

Looking ahead

PSI is set to embark on a new phase in 2023, with continued focus on Southern Asia, along with new efforts directed towards climate adaptation in the ASEAN region. Our research into the security dimension of continued reliance on fossil fuels and the concept of decarbonised defence will persist as well, particularly in relation to the EU’s efforts to minimise fossil dependencies. While the challenge of operationalising policies to mitigate climate-related security risks is still in its early phases, geopolitical tensions have made it even more difficult. Nevertheless, ignoring these risks is no longer an option; it is better to confront them head-on. Clingendael is committed to contributing to defining the practical implications for climate, foreign and security policies.

Clingendael is working towards strengthening the effectiveness and relevance of peace and justice policies and programmes. The Knowledge Platform Security & Rule of Law is an initiative of our Conflict Research Unit, in collaboration with Saferworld and IDLO. KPSRL works closely with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and engages over 3,000 people across the globe.

Making an impact

In 2022, KPSRL made progress on its brand-new funding instrument: the Programmatic Learning Instrument (PLI). The PLI is designed to stimulate and facilitate programmatic learning, the process of capturing and distilling insights from evidence and implementation to inform adaptive programming and portfolio management. The PLI is experimenting with new methods of co-creating knowledge and learning activities, while entering partnerships for learning.

KPSRL’s annual theme for 2022 was ‘Reimagining social contracts’. Through small grants of our Knowledge Management Fund (KMF), various events and our annual conference, we were able to support and contribute to broader debates on developing, influencing, strengthening and maintaining social contracts. Together with the KPSRL network participants, we presented conclusions and recommendations.

KPSRL’s head of secretariat Sever Džigurski on stage during the Annual Conference 2022.

Highlights

This year, we continued our ongoing process of reforming the KMF, the small funding instrument available to our network aiming to support the development and distribution of knowledge. KPSRL implemented a set of reforms through its Window II of 2022, aiming to increase the access to funds for applicants based in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Early indications suggest that these reforms might have been successful.

On 20 October 2022, our flagship Annual Conference 2022 (KPAC22) took place in a hybrid format, with six in-person sessions in The Hague, six online sessions and five hybrid sessions available to both in-person and remote audiences. The event brought together over 275 participants, including policymakers, researchers, practitioners, as well as – for the first time – students, artists and activists from 58 countries. Continuing our efforts from last year to address issues such as asymmetric power, we moved away from one singular keynote speaker and instead opened and closed the conference with conversations about trust, positionality, marginalised voices and youth-centred approaches to creating more inclusive and creative peace processes.

KPSRL’s Annual Conference 2022.

Looking ahead

KPSRL is currently undergoing a Mid-Term Review, which will provide valuable insights for our ToC review and help shape our future vision. We will collaborate with our network participants to develop a vision for KPSRL beyond 2024. Additionally, we will focus on initiatives taking place in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCAS) – particularly PLI initiatives in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia – and work on strengthening partnerships with embassies. Lastly, in 2023, KPSRL’s secretariat will continue to reform the KMF and make it a participatory grant-making mechanism.