Judy Asks: Does the French Vote Weaken Europe?

Macron’s snap election has left France ill-equipped to provide strategic leadership to the EU. This undermines Europe’s ability to deal with the plethora of challenges it faces. Judy Dempsey, Nonresident Senior Fellow of Carnegie Europe, compiled expert opinions on the question 'Does the French Vote Weaken Europe?'.

Read Louise van Schaik's take.

Because of his arguably irresponsible decision to call a snap election, Macron’s standing in Europe has weakened. This is despite voters and political parties joining forces and making smart use of the French electoral system to keep the radical right out as much as possible.

Combined with a German coalition government that is rather unstable and has taken a beating in the European Parliament elections, France is less likely now to steer strategic decisions on European integration. It is unclear, for instance, whether the EU can push forward a joined-up defense industry and new ways to finance its competitiveness without a well-functioning Franco-German axis and French visionary ideas for Europe.

Macron did bring the EU up to speed up on crucial issues like strategic autonomy and economic security. He dared to address sensitivities—for instance that the EU should not be taken for granted and that European boots on the ground might eventually be needed in Ukraine. Now, any position he will take can be undermined or at least discussed by new strongholds in France, which likely will take a more anti-globalist left leaning perspective. It can be expected that others will fill some of the void, possibly Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the European Commission president, but a strong French voice will be missed even when sometimes rather arrogant and unpredictable.

Read all the expert opinions.